•NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) say that Antarctic sea ice is likely to reach its annual maximum on September 14, 2026. At that time, the ice cover will have reached about 17.59 million square kilometers (6.79 million square miles), the third lowest maximum on record since satellite observations began, according to a NASA Earth Observatory report.
According to the NASA Earth Observatory, Antarctic sea ice typically reaches its maximum in September, at the end of the Southern Hemisphere’s winter, and reaches its minimum in February. Unlike the Arctic, which is a large ocean basin surrounded by land, Antarctica is a large landmass surrounded by ocean; this geographical feature provides more space for the sea ice to expand during the winter. But at the same time, the ice sheets extend further toward warmer latitudes, leading to more melting in the summer.
The article is an updated version of the Antarctic sea ice feature in the World of Change series, which is produced in collaboration with the NSIDC and uses satellite imagery to track long-term changes on the Earth’s surface.
Current data show that total Antarctic sea ice has increased by about 1% per year from 1979 to 2014. But it is unclear whether this increase is a sign of a meaningful change; because the ice cover around Antarctica varies greatly from year to year. In 2012-2014, three consecutive years saw satellites record new records in the maximum winter sea ice extent, during a period when Arctic ice sheets were in a steep decline.
To determine the ice extent, scientists rely on satellites equipped with passive microwave sensors that measure the microwave energy naturally emitted by the Earth. Sea ice emits more of this energy than open water, so it stands out in microwave images. Microwaves pass through clouds, so satellites can observe sea ice regularly, regardless of weather conditions. The records began with data collected by NASA’s Nimbus-7 satellite in late 1978; then the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites from 1987, and NASA’s Aqua satellite from 2002 to 2011. In 2025, scientists began using observations from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency’s GCOM-W satellite.
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